Travis Yost: Rough Waters?

Also, I was told to pass this along. Some good people running it. If you're in the area and interested:

http://www.eventzilla.net.../event?eventid=2139041398

More info here.

Is Clarke MacArthur really one of your "big three"?

Is Clarke MacArthur really one of your "big three"?
- Canada Cup

he's one of the 3 pending UFAs on the team. not one of our 3 best players, but a very important forward for this team.

I would think that Ottawa will have to show a willingness to spend to compete just for the sake of signing Ryan to a new deal. If Ryan walks next year then the sens could turn into a lottery team quite quickly and have a hard time convincing UFA's to head there and rfa's to sign long term. IMO.

Edit: I should say that would be if they also let the other players walk in free agency due to the huge deals guys with decent ability have been getting on July 1

Murray gave Chris Philips a new Deal! If we lose our 2nd best defensmen to UFA on an already weak D corps, there will be plenty of pi$$ed off Sens fans..

As Travis mentioned, Methot likes it here, he's a home town boy. I think he resigns.

we Traded Spezza & lost Hemsky this off season, we can't afford to lose Bobby Ryan & Clark MacArthur next summer. Get these proven NHL talents siqned already yeashhh!!

Murray gave Chris Philips a new Deal! If we lose our 2nd best defensmen to UFA on an already weak D corps, there will be plenty of pi$$ed off Sens fans..

As Travis mentioned, Methot likes it here, he's a home town boy. I think he resigns.

we Traded Spezza & lost Hemsky this off season, we can't afford to lose Bobby Ryan & Clark MacArthur next summer. Get these proven NHL talents siqned already yeashhh!!
- Erik6Karlsson5

Gotta think Bobby Ryan tests the UFA market, he could be the best Forward to hit the market. He's going to get paid.

Gotta think Bobby Ryan tests the UFA market, he could be the best Forward to hit the market. He's going to get paid.
- blacksheep1

Soon enough Murray will be truely aware of Bobby Ryan's intensions, what he's looking for dollar & term wise for a new contract or if he is certain he wants to hit the UFA market next summer.

If Ryan doesnt want to stay in Ottawa, he will be dealt shortly.. also a possibility he's moved at the deadline. either way this i know. murray will not lose B.R for nothing.

Time for Melnyk to pay up on a very talented NHL winger.

Gotta think Bobby Ryan tests the UFA market, he could be the best Forward to hit the market. He's going to get paid.
- blacksheep1

Ryan contract is the easiest to resolve. He probably wants $60m over 8 years. You either give it to him based on his ask. Or, you deal him to a team prepared to pay him his ask.

I am in the camp that would rather see him flipped. I think he is a touch old for the core group on this team. Whatever you get could be used in an offer for Kane.

If not Ottawa, I expect the place where Ryan would be a best fit is San Jose. I wondered when the Thornton to Ottawa rumors were floating around if it was not the smoke on something larger that was being considered.

Same thing applies to Methot. Either you pay him $5.5m on a long term deal or you move him. Market value is a pretty basic concept. Methot is worth what the open market will pay him. Extended negotiations hoping that an impending UFA will lower his ask is entirely useless, a waste of time.

Need to keep in mind that Ryan would turn 36 on the last year of an 8 year deal. He has already shown some decline in terms of peak performance. Lots of risk involved in giving him 8 year deal.

It should not be a surprise that the Methot negotiations are going bumpier than expected. Did anyone pay attention last season? Methot was scratched several times after coming back from injury when he said he was fine, but the coaching staff disagreed. I believe there was a random healthy scratch as well? His deployment at times was also questionable. After last season where he played so well with Karlsson, he hardly played with him this year. I don't think Methot and the coaches exactly see eye to eye. Loving a city will only get you so far.

Personally, I try to sign Methot ASAP. He is one of the few guys on this team that can provide leadership and play well. Something severely missing from this roster. To me, by todays standards, Methot is at least a 4.5 to 5 million dollar d-man. Lock him up and focus on Ryan.

If they can't extend Methot, people may start to wake up about the state of our ownership.

Murray gave Chris Philips a new Deal! If we lose our 2nd best defensmen to UFA on an already weak D corps, there will be plenty of pi$$ed off Sens fans..

As Travis mentioned, Methot likes it here, he's a home town boy. I think he resigns.

we Traded Spezza & lost Hemsky this off season, we can't afford to lose Bobby Ryan & Clark MacArthur next summer. Get these proven NHL talents siqned already yeashhh!!
- Erik6Karlsson5

It would be bad if you guys lost Ryan, Methot and MacArthur. Though I doubt it but you never know. As a leaf fan, I hope you guys give Ryan 8x8. Deal could be bad in a few years

It should not be a surprise that the Methot negotiations are going bumpier than expected. Did anyone pay attention last season? Methot was scratched several times after coming back from injury when he said he was fine, but the coaching staff disagreed. I believe there was a random healthy scratch as well? His deployment at times was also questionable. After last season where he played so well with Karlsson, he hardly played with him this year. I don't think Methot and the coaches exactly see eye to eye. Loving a city will only get you so far.

Personally, I try to sign Methot ASAP. He is one of the few guys on this team that can provide leadership and play well. Something severely missing from this roster. To me, by todays standards, Methot is at least a 4.5 to 5 million dollar d-man. Lock him up and focus on Ryan.

If they can't extend Methot, people may start to wake up about the state of our ownership.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I agree.

People need to stop labeling Melnyk as a cheapskate. He is not cheap, he is broke. It is not that he is unwilling to pay higher salaries, he cannot. Short term it is not a bad thing. Right now the Senators (the team) are in great financial order. They have a great talent base to build on.

But, if the budget crunch continues so that young core assets are not retained the ongoing viability of the franchise becomes problematic. I sometimes wonder if this is Melnyk's final attempt to force reconsideration of the Casino. If it is, he is wasting everyone's time.

It would be bad if you guys lost Ryan, Methot and MacArthur. Though I doubt it but you never know. As a leaf fan, I hope you guys give Ryan 8x8. Deal could be bad in a few years
- ClarksonDavid

I remember reading that the Soviet Red Army and the Soviet Olympic team had a compulsory retirement age of 28. Players were allowed to go play for other Club teams once they hit the upper age. More important, go back and look at the age of the best players on the Stanley Cup winners over the last 10 years. Almost always under age 28.

I would love to see teams start giving 8 year big dollar deals to their best 23 and 24 year old players. For example, I think the Montreal deal with Subban is the right deal as were the Doughty and Karlsson deals. Seems to me to be upside down if your paying a 34 year old player based on what he used to be.

Hockey News published a list of players taking a pay cut. Very few players justify big deals into their mid 30's. Need to realize that the come down from peak performance can be dramatic. Ryan has had two down years from peak. Good chance trend continues.

Forwards
Dany Heatley, Ana, 33, from $7.5 M to $1 M, a 86.7 percent drop
Mike Ribeiro, Nsh, 34, from $5.5 M to $1.05 M, a 81 percent drop
Derek Roy, Nsh, 31, from $4 M to $1 M, a 75 percent drop
David Booth, Tor, 29, from $4.25 M to $1.1 M, a 74.1 percent drop
Brad Richards, Chi, 34, from $6.67 M to $2 M, a 70 percent drop
Martin Havlat, NJ, 33, from $5 M to $1.5 M, a 70 percent drop
Lee Stempniak, NYR, 31, from $2.5 M to $900 K, a 64 percent drop
Steve Downie, Pit, 27, from $2.65 M to $1 M, a 62.3 percent drop
David Moss, Ari, 32, from $2.1 M to $800 K, a 61.9 percent drop
Olli Jokinen, Nsh, 35, from $4.5 M to $2.5 M, a 44.4 percent drop
T.J. Galiardi, Wpg, 26, from $1.25 M to $700 K, a 44 percent drop
David Legwand, Ott, 33, from $4.5 M to $3 M, a 33.3 percent drop
Others forwards who signed for less scratch this coming season include Brian Gionta, Matt Stajan, Jay McClement, Jarome Iginla, Ales Hemsky, Vern Fiddler, Thomas Vanek, Mike Cammalleri, Steve Bernier, Cory Conacher, Milan Michalek, Blake Comeau, Steve Ott, Matt Frattin and Daniel Winnik.
Defense
Anton Volchenkov, Nsh, 32, from $4.25 M to $1 M, a 76.5 percent drop
Tim Gleason, Car, 31, from $4.0 M to $1.2 M, a 70 percent drop
Kimmo Timonen, Phi, 39, from $6 M to $2 M, a 66.7 percent drop
Nick Schultz, Phi, 31, from $3.5 M to $1.25 M, a 64.3 percent drop
Michael Del Zotto, Phi, 24, from $2.55 M to $1.3 M, a 49 percent drop
Dan Boyle, NYR, 38, from $6.67 M to $4.5 M, a 32.5 percent drop
Other defenseman who signed for less money this coming season include Matt Greene, Justin Falk, Chris Phillips, Chris Butler, Stephane Robidas and Nate Prosser.
Goalies
Devan Dubnyk, Ari, 28, from $3.5 M to $800 K, a 77.1 percent drop
Evgeni Nabokov, TB, 39, from $3.25 M to $1.55 M, a 52.3 percent drop
Other goalies who signed for less are Ryan Miller, Anders Lindback and Ray Emery.

Hockey News published a list of players taking a pay cut. Very few players justify big deals into their mid 30's. Need to realize that the come down from peak performance can be dramatic. Ryan has had two down years from peak. Good chance trend continues.

Forwards
Dany Heatley, Ana, 33, from $7.5 M to $1 M, a 86.7 percent drop
Mike Ribeiro, Nsh, 34, from $5.5 M to $1.05 M, a 81 percent drop
Derek Roy, Nsh, 31, from $4 M to $1 M, a 75 percent drop
David Booth, Tor, 29, from $4.25 M to $1.1 M, a 74.1 percent drop
Brad Richards, Chi, 34, from $6.67 M to $2 M, a 70 percent drop
Martin Havlat, NJ, 33, from $5 M to $1.5 M, a 70 percent drop
Lee Stempniak, NYR, 31, from $2.5 M to $900 K, a 64 percent drop
Steve Downie, Pit, 27, from $2.65 M to $1 M, a 62.3 percent drop
David Moss, Ari, 32, from $2.1 M to $800 K, a 61.9 percent drop
Olli Jokinen, Nsh, 35, from $4.5 M to $2.5 M, a 44.4 percent drop
T.J. Galiardi, Wpg, 26, from $1.25 M to $700 K, a 44 percent drop
David Legwand, Ott, 33, from $4.5 M to $3 M, a 33.3 percent drop
Others forwards who signed for less scratch this coming season include Brian Gionta, Matt Stajan, Jay McClement, Jarome Iginla, Ales Hemsky, Vern Fiddler, Thomas Vanek, Mike Cammalleri, Steve Bernier, Cory Conacher, Milan Michalek, Blake Comeau, Steve Ott, Matt Frattin and Daniel Winnik.
Defense
Anton Volchenkov, Nsh, 32, from $4.25 M to $1 M, a 76.5 percent drop
Tim Gleason, Car, 31, from $4.0 M to $1.2 M, a 70 percent drop
Kimmo Timonen, Phi, 39, from $6 M to $2 M, a 66.7 percent drop
Nick Schultz, Phi, 31, from $3.5 M to $1.25 M, a 64.3 percent drop
Michael Del Zotto, Phi, 24, from $2.55 M to $1.3 M, a 49 percent drop
Dan Boyle, NYR, 38, from $6.67 M to $4.5 M, a 32.5 percent drop
Other defenseman who signed for less money this coming season include Matt Greene, Justin Falk, Chris Phillips, Chris Butler, Stephane Robidas and Nate Prosser.
Goalies
Devan Dubnyk, Ari, 28, from $3.5 M to $800 K, a 77.1 percent drop
Evgeni Nabokov, TB, 39, from $3.25 M to $1.55 M, a 52.3 percent drop
Other goalies who signed for less are Ryan Miller, Anders Lindback and Ray Emery.
- spatso

For me, this list isn't overly telling. Richards and Heatley are the only two names that really jump out. The rest are good hockey players, but overrated hockey players.

Sometimes you have to give to get. You'll never have a whole roster of Kyle Turris friendly contracts. You'll never be able to build a team if you go by the rule that anyone over the age of 28 is useless. If signed to a long term deal, will Bobby Ryan be as good when he is 35 as he is now? Probably not. But if it means having a contending team sometime between now and then, it's worth it in my opinion. You'll never have a top team if you aren't willing to sign big contracts here and there.

Melnyk needs to get to the salary floor. He can either pay his own players or overpay someone else's player.
Methot $4.5 x 5 years - team friendly deal.
McArthur $5 x 4 years
Bobby Ryan - $8 x 8 years
Cap is headed to $80Min 2 years. New TV deal kicks in this year so cap going up big time next year.

Here's how I see the last 3 years:

Exodus of the former players 2011 - Fisher, Kelly, Ruutu, Kovalev out, Elliot for Anderson. The Sens officially go ahead with their rebuild by tearing down the previous team

2011 NHL Entry Draft The Senators scouting staff does a great job of restocking the prospect pool: Mika Zibanejad, Stefan Noesen, Matt Puempel, Shane Prince, Jean Gabriel Pageau, Fredrik Claesson

2011-12 Season: Despite many NHL writers predicting the Sens at the bottom or near the bottom, the Sens pick up Turris for Rundblad and late game heroics get the"cardiac kids" in the playoffs. Spezza finishes 4th in scoring. Michalek gets 35 goals. Karlsson wins the norris. Alfie shows he can still play hockey. The team hardly looked like it was at the start of a rebuild...

2012-2013 Season: Sens get a great pick at 15, Cody Ceci. The lockout leads Cowen, who was geared for a big year, to Bingo; causing him to face a season crippling hip injury. The Sens luckily get Methot for Foligno and despite being hit with the worst case of bad luck a team can get with injuries to Spezza, Karlsson, Anderson, Michalek the teams not only gets into the playoffs, they overwhelmingly pass the first round.

So at this point in time .... one might ask: where was the rebuild? This team has overachieved more than anyone excepted; maybe even themselves. So what happened?

Daniel Alfredsson walked away in July 2013; he didn't walk away from his teammates, the city, or the team he captained for 13 years. Alfie walked away from a owner/franchise he never walked away from; even though he had many options. The Sens did great in drafting Lazar and acquiring Ryan in the summer of 2013; without loosing anyone from their roster aside from Silfverberg. But the team failed to address their veteran group (lack there of) and underestimated how difficult life would be without players like Alfie and Gonchar.

Eugene Melynk and the Sens have to commit to rebuilding this team the RIGHT WAY and the right way is to retain assets when they need to be retained, establish a good leadership group (Alfie should of been retained, even at 5.5M a year). MacArthur, Ryan, Karlsson, Turris, Methot, Legwand has to be the new leadership group in Ottawa

Nice write up AlfiesKing! Pretty much sums up the last 3 seasons..

Here's how I see the last 3 years:

Exodus of the former players 2011 - Fisher, Kelly, Ruutu, Kovalev out, Elliot for Anderson. The Sens officially go ahead with their rebuild by tearing down the previous team

2011 NHL Entry Draft The Senators scouting staff does a great job of restocking the prospect pool: Mika Zibanejad, Stefan Noesen, Matt Puempel, Shane Prince, Jean Gabriel Pageau, Fredrik Claesson

2011-12 Season: Despite many NHL writers predicting the Sens at the bottom or near the bottom, the Sens pick up Turris for Rundblad and late game heroics get the"cardiac kids" in the playoffs. Spezza finishes 4th in scoring. Michalek gets 35 goals. Karlsson wins the norris. Alfie shows he can still play hockey. The team hardly looked like it was at the start of a rebuild...

2012-2013 Season: Sens get a great pick at 15, Cody Ceci. The lockout leads Cowen, who was geared for a big year, to Bingo; causing him to face a season crippling hip injury. The Sens luckily get Methot for Foligno and despite being hit with the worst case of bad luck a team can get with injuries to Spezza, Karlsson, Anderson, Michalek the teams not only gets into the playoffs, they overwhelmingly pass the first round.

So at this point in time .... one might ask: where was the rebuild? This team has overachieved more than anyone excepted; maybe even themselves. So what happened?

Daniel Alfredsson walked away in July 2013; he didn't walk away from his teammates, the city, or the team he captained for 13 years. Alfie walked away from a owner/franchise he never walked away from; even though he had many options. The Sens did great in drafting Lazar and acquiring Ryan in the summer of 2013; without loosing anyone from their roster aside from Silfverberg. But the team failed to address their veteran group (lack there of) and underestimated how difficult life would be without players like Alfie and Gonchar.

Eugene Melynk and the Sens have to commit to rebuilding this team the RIGHT WAY and the right way is to retain assets when they need to be retained, establish a good leadership group (Alfie should of been retained, even at 5.5M a year). MacArthur, Ryan, Karlsson, Turris, Methot, Legwand has to be the new leadership group in Ottawa
- AlfieisKing

Pretty much bang on summary. Well done.

Assuming we had steady ownership, I can't help but wonder what could have been had Alfie stayed and we still added Ryan and Macarthur. Our defence would still have been a mess, but no one can deny the leadership Alfie brought to the table.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/ne...728060&navid=nhl:topheads

This is a nice informative read from NHL.com about prospect Nick Paul, who was aquired in the Spezza trade to Dallas along with Alex Chaisson , Alex Guptill & a 2015 2nd round pick.

It goes into detail about the day he got the call saying he had been traded to Ottawa.

How he's phisicaly grown since he's was drafted by Dallas in the 4th round, 101 overall in 2013. He's grown a lot! & now sits at 6' 4" 225lbs.

Also about how he's making it hard for Canada's world junior team to cut him.

Looks like a very promising prospect.. With skill, speed & LOTS of size!

Here's how I see the last 3 years:

Exodus of the former players 2011 - Fisher, Kelly, Ruutu, Kovalev out, Elliot for Anderson. The Sens officially go ahead with their rebuild by tearing down the previous team

2011 NHL Entry Draft The Senators scouting staff does a great job of restocking the prospect pool: Mika Zibanejad, Stefan Noesen, Matt Puempel, Shane Prince, Jean Gabriel Pageau, Fredrik Claesson

2011-12 Season: Despite many NHL writers predicting the Sens at the bottom or near the bottom, the Sens pick up Turris for Rundblad and late game heroics get the"cardiac kids" in the playoffs. Spezza finishes 4th in scoring. Michalek gets 35 goals. Karlsson wins the norris. Alfie shows he can still play hockey. The team hardly looked like it was at the start of a rebuild...

2012-2013 Season: Sens get a great pick at 15, Cody Ceci. The lockout leads Cowen, who was geared for a big year, to Bingo; causing him to face a season crippling hip injury. The Sens luckily get Methot for Foligno and despite being hit with the worst case of bad luck a team can get with injuries to Spezza, Karlsson, Anderson, Michalek the teams not only gets into the playoffs, they overwhelmingly pass the first round.

So at this point in time .... one might ask: where was the rebuild? This team has overachieved more than anyone excepted; maybe even themselves. So what happened?

Daniel Alfredsson walked away in July 2013; he didn't walk away from his teammates, the city, or the team he captained for 13 years. Alfie walked away from a owner/franchise he never walked away from; even though he had many options. The Sens did great in drafting Lazar and acquiring Ryan in the summer of 2013; without loosing anyone from their roster aside from Silfverberg. But the team failed to address their veteran group (lack there of) and underestimated how difficult life would be without players like Alfie and Gonchar.

Eugene Melynk and the Sens have to commit to rebuilding this team the RIGHT WAY and the right way is to retain assets when they need to be retained, establish a good leadership group (Alfie should of been retained, even at 5.5M a year). MacArthur, Ryan, Karlsson, Turris, Methot, Legwand has to be the new leadership group in Ottawa
- AlfieisKing

Real good summary.

Agree with most of your conclusions. Even though I regret Alfredsson going to Detroit, it was time for Ottawa to move on. Feel the same about Spezza and over the next season we will probably see the departure of Phillips and Neil.

Player retention of key assets will be critical. But, I fear the bigger mistake between resigning Bobby Ryan or losing Bobby Ryan will be resigning him to a big dollar contract of $8m over a long term of 8 years.

I would rather see the Sens flip Ryan and use the proceeds from that deal and other considerations to acquire Evander Kane. Kane is a far more attractive asset at his age for 5 years at $5.25 m than Ryan at 8years for $8m.

I think we are going to see the full emergence of a young and highly talented Senators team this fall. We will know in the first month of the season but I expect this team to comfortably make the playoffs. I believe they will come close to their target and cut 40 goals against. Very exciting.

Real good summary.

Agree with most of your conclusions. Even though I regret Alfredsson going to Detroit, it was time for Ottawa to move on. Feel the same about Spezza and over the next season we will probably see the departure of Phillips and Neil.

Player retention of key assets will be critical. But, I fear the bigger mistake between resigning Bobby Ryan or losing Bobby Ryan will be resigning him to a big dollar contract of $8m over a long term of 8 years.

I would rather see the Sens flip Ryan and use the proceeds from that deal and other considerations to acquire Evander Kane. Kane is a far more attractive asset at his age for 5 years at $5.25 m than Ryan at 8years for $8m.

I think we are going to see the full emergence of a young and highly talented Senators team this fall. We will know in the first month of the season but I expect this team to comfortably make the playoffs. I believe they will come close to their target and cut 40 goals against. Very exciting.
- spatso

The rebuild is over, with all the talent in our AHL club people know they have to bust there balls each night or they will be sent packing. First couple guys to mess up with be used as a example. I like that we have too many players. Skate like the wind or pack your suitcase.

Gotta think Bobby Ryan tests the UFA market, he could be the best Forward to hit the market. He's going to get paid.
- blacksheep1

I don't see Ryan getting $8M. The team(s) that will pay that much won't be teams he'll want to go to.

$7M on the open market is a safe bet. Which means that 7.5 on a 8 year deal is likely. Therefore the gap between what he gets here in ottawa (if Sens give top value) isn't much less than what he'll get on the open market.

8 years @ 7.25 = $ 58M
8 years @ 7.75 = $62M

$4M over 8 years doesn't mean a lot when your talking re-locating, moving, all that. I think if he goes it's because he has his eye on going back to the states; and it's likely closer to home. I'm sure the Sens know they can't F**k up next summer with Alfie, Spezza two summers in a row

I don't see Ryan getting $8M. The team(s) that will pay that much won't be teams he'll want to go to.

$7M on the open market is a safe bet. Which means that 7.5 on a 8 year deal is likely. Therefore the gap between what he gets here in ottawa (if Sens give top value) isn't much less than what he'll get on the open market.

8 years @ 7.25 = $ 58M
8 years @ 7.75 = $62M

$4M over 8 years doesn't mean a lot when your talking re-locating, moving, all that. I think if he goes it's because he has his eye on going back to the states; and it's likely closer to home. I'm sure the Sens know they can't F**k up next summer with Alfie, Spezza two summers in a row
- AlfieisKing

The problem is not the quantum. Would not bother me to pay him $10m a year for 3 years. Problem is the term. Do you really want to be paying him that kind of money until age 35 (2 years older than Legwand, 4 years older than Spezza).

Does anybody really believe that Ottawa would have been a stronger team last year if their opening night starting line had been Spezza, Heatley and Alfredsson? Age matters a lot!